Grocery prices aren’t rising at the same rate across the board in 2026. Some items are becoming noticeably more expensive, while others have remained relatively stable or even become cheaper. That can make grocery shopping especially frustrating. You may feel like you’re spending more at the supermarket even when you’re buying roughly the same things.
According to the latest USDA food price outlook, food-at-home prices are expected to rise about 2.5% overall in 2026. But several categories are expected to increase faster than that, including beef, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages. Here are seven grocery items and categories worth watching as you plan your food budget for the rest of 2026.
Beef
Beef has become one of the biggest pressure points in the grocery budget. USDA data shows beef and veal prices were 9.4% higher in July 2026 than they were a year earlier. The USDA is forecasting an average increase of about 9.8% for beef and veal prices across 2026. Tight cattle supplies are one reason prices remain elevated. USDA reports that federally inspected beef production fell nearly 5% in July compared with the previous year, while tighter cattle supplies are expected to continue affecting production during the second half of 2026. For shoppers, this could be a good year to compare different cuts, watch for sales, and occasionally substitute less expensive proteins such as chicken, beans, lentils, or eggs.
Fresh Vegetables
Fresh vegetables are another category putting pressure on grocery budgets. Overall, fresh vegetable prices were 6.3% higher in July 2026 than in July 2025, according to the USDA. Prices varied considerably depending on the vegetable, with tomatoes up 12.8%, lettuce up 7.5%, and potatoes up 3.4% year over year.
The USDA expects fresh vegetable prices to increase 5.9% for 2026 as a whole, considerably faster than the historical average for the category. One way to manage the increase is to shop seasonally and compare fresh, frozen, and canned versions. Frozen vegetables can be particularly useful when a favorite fresh vegetable becomes unusually expensive.
Fresh Fruit
Fruit may seem like a relatively inexpensive grocery staple, but prices have been rising as well. Fresh fruit prices increased 4.9% between July 2025 and July 2026. The USDA forecasts fresh fruit prices to rise 2.9% on average for 2026. That doesn’t mean every type of fruit will become more expensive at the same rate. Prices can vary based on growing conditions, transportation costs, seasonality, and supply. If your usual fruits become expensive, rotating your choices based on what’s in season can help. Frozen fruit can also be a practical alternative for smoothies, baking, and other recipes.
Sugar and Sweets
Anyone with a sweet tooth may notice another increase in the grocery aisle. Prices for sugar and sweets were 7.4% higher in July 2026 than they were a year earlier. The USDA is forecasting a 7.1% increase for the category across 2026.
The category includes products such as candy and chewing gum, and the USDA notes that chocolate candy has been an important contributor to the increase. For shoppers, this is a good reminder to compare package sizes and unit prices rather than assuming the largest package is automatically the best deal.
Coffee and Other Nonalcoholic Beverages
Your morning coffee could also be contributing more to your grocery bill. The broader nonalcoholic beverage category was 4.1% more expensive in July 2026 than a year earlier, and the USDA forecasts a 4.3% increase for the category over the full year. Higher prices for beverage materials, including coffee and tea, have contributed to the increase. Coffee prices have also been affected by global supply conditions, making this one category where shoppers may want to pay closer attention to sales and compare brands. Switching between brands, buying when your preferred coffee is discounted, or reducing waste can help keep the increase from having as much of an impact on your budget.
Rice and Other Grain-Based Foods
Grain-based foods deserve attention in 2026, although the situation varies significantly by country and product. Corn prices were up 24.5%, while flour, bread, pasta, and other cereal products were up 3.9%.
Global grain markets have also faced supply and weather pressures. Recent reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization indicate that cereal prices rose in August amid weather concerns and export disruptions. For households that rely heavily on rice, bread, pasta, or other grain-based staples, even relatively small price changes can have a noticeable effect on the monthly grocery bill.
Chocolate and Cocoa-Based Products
Chocolate deserves its own mention because it has faced unusually strong supply pressures. The USDA includes chocolate candy within its sugar-and-sweets category, which was up 7.4% year over year in July. Cocoa supply problems have contributed to higher costs for chocolate products, although retail prices won’t necessarily move in perfect step with commodity prices. Manufacturers may change package sizes, formulations, or prices at different times. If chocolate is a regular purchase in your household, comparing package prices and watching for promotions may help. Buying a larger quantity only makes sense if the per-unit price is genuinely lower and you will use it before it goes to waste.
*This article was developed with AI-powered tools and has been carefully reviewed by our editors.
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